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Admiral Markets -- Ежедневный технический анализ Технический анализ рынка Forex


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Технический анализ рынка Forex

Market Snapshot 22.04.09

22.04.09

Market Snapshot 22.04.09

USD

Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US House price index -Feb- (-0.6%).

2.Yesterday's US economic releases, -actual- ABC Consumer confidence -Apr19- (-46).

3.USD strengthens against most currencies today as US stock futures fell after Capital One Financial and Advanced Micro Devices posted 1st quarter losses amid earlier Treasury Secretary Geithner indicated that stress tests will show most of the 19 biggest US banks have enough capital.

4.USD fell against the euro yesterday after ZEW Center said its Euro index of investor and analyst expectations turned positive for the first time in almost 2 years and Germany's investor confidence rose to the highest level in almost 2 years in April, suggesting that ECB rate cuts and governments' measure are bolstering the regions confidence.

5.The dollar remained weak yesterday despite investors speculates that banking losses will deepen amid regulators conducting the stress tests on the 19 largest US banks are focusing on the quality of loans they made.

On the upside:
∙Figures that suggest economies in Europe contracts faster than expected.
∙Further indication that economy in US will contract further.

On the downside:
∙Further selling pressure on perspective that confidence among investors in Europe is improving.


To monitor:
∙Today's US economic releases.
∙Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
∙Statements/comments by Europe's officials.
∙Speculation on additional stimulus plan.
∙US Indexes movement.
∙News/statements related to major corporate.
∙Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
∙Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)


Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD - GBP/USD – AUD/USD –

-According to 12.00GMT price-


JPY

Brief:
1.Today's Japan economic releases, -actual- Japan Merchandise trade balance -Mar- (11.0B Yen), Japan Adjusted Merchandise trade balance -Mar- (-97.1B Yen), Japan Merchandise trade exports -YoY- (-45.6) and Japan Merchandise trade imports -YoY- (-36.7).

2.JPY strengthens against most currencies today as stocks in Europe and US futures index fell despite US Treasury Geithner indicated that stress tests will show most of the 19 biggest US banks have enough capital as investors speculates that non-banking industry will post losses as consumer spending slowed.

3.JPY fell against most currencies yesterday as US stocks advanced, erasing an earlier slide, after US Treasury Secretary Geithner said the vast majority of the nation’s banks have more capital than needed, easing concerns that there will be more banks that would need government bailouts.

On the upside:
∙Stocks may retreat on speculation the global recession is far from over.

On the downside:
∙The yen may weaken on speculation Japan's government will offer more stimulus package.
∙Stocks may rise further on buying interest.


To monitor:
∙Today's US economic releases.
∙US Indexes movement.
∙Corporate fiscal report.
∙Fed/Treasury members' speech.
∙BOJ Members' statements/comments.
∙News related to major institution.
∙Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
∙Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.


Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – USD/JPY – AUD/JPY –

-According to 12.00GMT price-


EUR

Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- France Business indicator -Apr- (69), France Production outlook indicator -Apr- (-67), France Manufacturing PMI -Apr- (37.0), France Services PMI -Apr- (43.7), Germany Manufacturing PMI -Apr- (33.0), Germany Services PMI -Apr- (42.4), Euro-zone Current account -Feb- (-10.7B Euros), Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI -Apr- (34.7), Euro-zone Services PMI -Apr- (41.4) and Euro-zone Industrial orders -Feb- (-2.2%).

2.EUR fell against most currencies today despite stocks in Europe and US futures index fell on speculation that non-financial industry in the US will post more losses as consumer spending slowed, increasing appeal of the dollar as safe haven.

3.EUR rebounded from a 5-week low yesterday as a survey showed Euro-zone investor and analyst expectations turned positive for the first time in almost 2 years and Germany's investor confidence rose to the highest level in almost 2 years in April, spurring speculation that ECB may stop cutting rates to avoid deflation risk.

4.The euro remained strong against most currencies yesterday as US stocks advanced after Treasury Secretary Geithner said the vast majority of the nation's banks have more capital than needed, reducing demand for the dollar as safe haven.

On the upside:
∙Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
∙Some recovery after recent retreat.

On the downside:
∙Signs of deepening recession in Euro-zone.


To monitor:
∙Today's US economic releases.
∙Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
∙US Indexes movement.
∙News related to major corporate.
∙ECB Member's statements/comments.
∙Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
∙Other central banks member’s statements/comments.


Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/CHF - EUR/USD –

-According to 12.00GMT price-


Crude oil

Brief:
1.Crude oil fell today as the dollar advances and as analysts said a report today will show crude oil inventories in the US rose 2.4Million barrels last week, from their highest level since 1990 as the recession reduced demand, raising concerns that oversupply will linger.

2.Crude oil climbed yesterday as the dollar fell against the euro and following gains in US stocks, after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the vast majority of the nation’s banks have more capital than needed.

3.Oil prices remained strong yesterday on short-covering as investors exit position on profit taking after recent retreats and before a storage report today that analysts said a will show crude oil stockpiles rose last week consumption weaken.

On the upside:
∙Speculation on additional stimulus package.
∙Some rebound after yesterday's retreat and as investors rush into fresh contract.

On the downside:
∙Further selling pressure on bets that global recession will deepen.


To monitor:
∙Today's US economic releases.
∙Today's storage report.
∙Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
∙US Indexes movement.
∙OPEC members' comments/statements.
∙USD movement.
∙Geopolitical risk.
∙Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.


Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $48 and low $49 (Today's economic releases, storage report, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-

-According to 12.00GMT price-


Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)


Present (12.00PM) – 14PM GMT:  

∙USD strengthens in early trading session.
∙US stocks market retreats in early trading session.
∙JPY strengthens in early trading session.
∙EUR weakens in early trading session.
∙Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.

14PM – 16PM GMT:

∙USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
∙US stock markets slightly retreats in mid trading session.
∙JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
∙EUR slightly weakens in mid trading session.
∙Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session. (Depends on storage report)

16PM – 21PM GMT:

∙USD slightly weakens in late trading session.  
∙US capital markets slightly recover in late trading session.
∙JPY slightly weakens in late trading session.
∙EUR slightly strengthens in late trading session.
∙Crude oil slightly weakens in late trading session. (Depends on storage report)


Loh Chang Yuen,

Junior Strategist

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Москва,
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